Notes from Amy Webb’s book The Signals Are Talking. Futurists predict possible and probable futures a few years to decades away by analyzing advancements in technology and human tendencies, and extrapolating what is physically possible in the future. This book deconstructs the mental frameworks futurists use to make those predictions.

Visit the fringe

To predict the future, you must visit what’s called the unusual suspects at the fringe. The fringe is that place where scientists, artists, technologists, philosophers, mathematicians, psychologists, ethicists, and social science thinkers are testing seemingly bizarre hypotheses, undertaking wildly creative research, and trying to discover new kinds of solutions to the problems confronting humanity.

Finding fringe thinkers is the first part of the forecasting process. You can also use a fringe sketch to map out the landscape. From there, you will uncover hidden patterns, connecting experimentation at the fringe to our fundamental human needs and desires.

Trends are vitally important, because they are the necessary signposts that must be recognized early for you to be a participant in shaping the future.

A trend is a new manifestation of sustained change within an industry, the public sector, or society, or in the way that we behave toward one another. A trend is a starting point that helps us to simultaneously meet the demands of the present while planning for the future. In a sense, trends are the analogy our minds need to help us think about and understand change. A trend is driven by a basic human need and human nature, one that is catalyzed by new technology.

To identify a trend, apply CIPHER: Contradictions, Inflections, Practices, Hacks, Extremes, Rarities. To understand if a trend is important, consider the Toothbrush Test: If it is something you’d use once or twice a day and it makes your life better—like a toothbrush—it wins approval. It’s a good example to remember because it illustrates why it’s important not to focus on just one thing—the Kanizsa’s Pac-Man-like circles, Seurat’s dots, the Google car itself—but to simultaneously observe the motion between objects. Zooming out to observe not just the fringe, but the other sources of change, reveals a pattern you would otherwise miss. The patterns will reveal to you a possible trend, one you’ll then need to investigate, interrogate, and prove.

To evaluate whether a trend is real or smoke, shred that trend candidate apart and challenge assumptions and knowledge, such as “what would have to be true in order for trend X to prove out as a manifestation of sustained change within society?” Getting in the habit of poking holes in a hypothesis, even taking the contrarian view when you agree with the idea, will help make you a good forecaster of the future.

For every resolution you argued, break the big concepts down into smaller parts and then see if you could prove each one wrong. These counterarguments were called “disads,” or “disadvantages,” and they broke apart every part of the opposing team’s assertions, bit by bit, in order to show every single way in which the assumptions, evidence, and impact were wrong, untrue, or overblown.

To estimate the arrival of a trend, calculate the trend’s ETA and direction: Where is it heading, how quickly, and with what momentum? However, identifying a trend isn’t enough—as RIM discovered in 2008, when it attempted to launch its self-described “iPhone killer.”

To effectively plan for the future, think in terms of time zones: Now (<12 mo), near-term (2-5 yrs), mid-range (5-10 yrs), long-range (10-20 yrs), far-range (20-30 yrs), distant (>30 yrs). The ETA = (distance / speed) +/- (events along the route). In this loose adaptation, “speed” and “distance” mark the advancement of a technology’s development or the internal advancements of the primary driver of a trend. Distance ÷ speed is how we directly evaluate the movement of a technology trend. Recast as trend’s timing = (internal tech developments, or I) +/– (external events, or E).

To create a salient strategy in the present, You must develop probable, plausible, and possible scenarios. Scenarios can be developed using Kahn’s technique of storytelling and put the facts into a narrative context to develop possible scenarios for the future. There are really only seven basic plots for storytelling: they represented the comedy, the tragedy, the rags-to-riches story, the quest, the voyage, the return, and stories of humans versus humans, monsters, nature, or society. Throughout our history, every story we’ve ever told—which includes scenarios about the future—fits into one of those categories.

Our goal isn’t to predict something that will definitely happen. Instead, we must envision all of the possible outcomes and use them to help us make an informed decision about strategy to employ in the present. The goal is to write a scenario that includes enough detail and description to help build the right strategy. In our case, a scenario should follow an if/then pattern: IF [Facts, Perspectives, Framing]… THEN [Outcomes].

There is one final step: pressure-testing the strategy against the trend to make sure the action you’re taking is the right one. In other words, force yourself to think through the implications of your actions.

Paradox of the present

One reason we don’t recognize this moment in time as an era of great transformation (i.e. paradox of the present) is because it’s hard to recognize change, partly because repeated exposures can turn novelty into the new normal. Also, we humans have a bias of paying most attention to the last few signals we’ve seen, read, or heard, and we tend to underplay the significance of something when it is not significant to our immediate frame of reference.

We must solve the paradox of the present by practicing ambidextrous thinking, and accept that the future is not predetermine, continually assuming that each new exploit was novel and unique.

Ten sources of modern change

  1. Wealth distribution
  2. Education
  3. Government
  4. Politics
  5. Public health
  6. Demography
  7. Economy
  8. Environment
  9. Journalism
  10. Media

Similarities to design thinking

  • Flare at the fringe: Keep an open mind as you cast a wide enough net and gather information without judgment. You’re brainstorming, making a fringe map, forcing yourself to think outside the box and consider radically different points of view.
  • Focus to spot patterns: CIPHER helps narrow what you’ve learned and uncovered. Look for contradictions, inflections, practices, hacks, extremes, and rarities.
  • Flare to ask the right questions: In order to get beyond your own belief bias, force yourself to disagree with all of your assertions. Brainstorm to create counterarguments and to poke holes in everything you think you know to be true.
  • Focus to calculate timing: Where is the trend along its trajectory? What is your ETA equation? What are the internal tech developments and the external events worth paying attention to?
  • Flare to create scenarios and strategies: What are the probable, plausible, and possible futures, given what you know to be true today of the trend? What outcomes are likely? What necessary strategies and ways of thinking will govern how your organization will respond to the trend?
  • Focus to pressure-test your action: What outcomes will result in response to the action you take? Is your strategy extensible, and will it continue to address the trend as it evolves? In this final step, you are working to ensure that your desired future is achievable.